Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #13 Bad News for Hong Kong!
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Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 15 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #025-A
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NOW WITH ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 240 KPH…EYEING HONG KONG.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core of CHANCHU is expected to continue
drifting West to WNW across the South China Sea this morning,
before taking a sharp Northward track. The three-day forecast
still shows striking and making landfall near Hong Kong, China
around midnight of Thursday (May 18). Hong Kong residents are
advised to closely monitor the progress of this Category 4
typhoon and start mapping out disaster preparedness plans
to avoid problems.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU’s large core (eye + eyewall) remains over the
warm waters of the South China Sea with its outer rainbands cove-
ring almost the entire South China Sea and Western Philippines.
These rainbands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall
with moderate to strong winds, and could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and
mountain slopes over the affected areas. Residents residing along
the coastal beachfront areas of Palawan, Western Luzon & Western
Visayas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 13 to 18
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all sea
vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is still enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to heavy rains along Western
sections of the Philippines. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.8º N…LONGITUDE 115.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 620 KM (335 NM) WSW OF METRO MANILA, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 910 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 42 FEET (12.8 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 4
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM’S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 965 KM (520 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MON MAY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - NOW LOWERED.
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 MAY: 13.9N 114.8E / 260-315 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 MAY: 15.0N 114.4E / 270-325 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 MAY POSITION: 13.8N 115.4E.
^ THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR) TO THE
WEST OF TY CHANCHU IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MID-
LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE AREA) OVER EAST CENTRAL CHINA.
THIS WEAKENING WILL ALLOW THE STHPR EAST OF CHANCHU
TO ASSUME PRIMARY STEERING OF THE STORM. THIS STHPR
WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(more info) >> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
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> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat’l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
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NOTES:
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone’s Sea Wave Height near its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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