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Brace for Impact: TROPICAL STORM PABUK

Posted By thenhbushman On In Uncategorized | Comments Disabled

Cross posted from Bushman’s Typhoon Blog [1]:

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM PABUK [CHEDENG/07W/0706] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 06 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 06 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #003
_______________________________________________________________________
  

TROPICAL STORM PABUK (CHEDENG) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TURNS WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA…THREATENS TAIWAN-
BATANES AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE SOUTH-
WEST MONSOON AND BRING MONSOON RAINS ACROSS LUZON IN THE
COMING DAYS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PABUK is expected to resume its WNW and
track in the direction of Northern Taiwan, becoming a 120-
km/hr Typhoon early tomorrow morning, Aug 7. The 2 to 5-day
forecast shows PABUK accelerating further becoming a 175-
km/hr Category 2 Typhoon before passing close to the north
of Taiwan on Wednesday morning, Aug 08. This potential ty-
phoon shall make landfall over Eastern China, just to the
north of Wenzhou, China on Wednesday evening, Aug 08 or
early Thursday morning, Aug 9 as a downgraded Category 1
Typhoon (120 km/hr). It shall track NW’ly across Eastern
to NE China and dissipate early Saturday morning, Aug 10. 

+ EFFECTS: PABUK’s circulation continues to consolidate.
As of the moment, the large circulation remains over the
Northern Philippine Sea only affecting various shipping
lines.


+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon
is now starting to be enhanced by PABUK…Cloudy skies
with possible intermittent passing rains or thunderstorms
with SW’ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher can be expected
along the western sections of Southern Luzon (including
Bicol Region), Visayas & Mindanao particularly the wes-
tern sections. This monsoon system may reach Northern &
Central Luzon tomorrow or Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong
Thunderstorms can be expected again over Luzon this
afternoon until early evening, bringing moderate to
heavy rains.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Refer to TD 06W for more up-
dates.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 06 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.4º N…LONGITUDE 132.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 825 KM (445 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 2: 1,115 KM (600 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,165 KM (630 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,240 KM (670 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A [2]
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 992 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM’S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/ AVERAGE [3]
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME AUGUST 06 [4]
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD [5]  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 20.9N 130.6E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 21.8N 128.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.2N 123.5E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 24 KPH


REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST POSITION: 20.2N 133.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PABUK) HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED UNDER THE MAIN CONVEC-
TION WITH CONVERGENT BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAS-
TERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE LLCC UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION,
WHILE A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION FLARING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC...(more [6])

>> PABUK {pronounced: pa~book}, meaning: Big fresh water fish. 
   Name contributed by: Lao PDR.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 20.2N 133.0E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml [7]

_______________________________________________________________________



RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat’l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org [8])
__________________________________________________________________________________________


NOTES:

 
  ^ – JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * – Based on PAGASA’s Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm [9]

 ** – Based on the Tropical Cyclone’s Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm [10]  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml [11]
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php [12]
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html [13]
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml [14]
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx [15]
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS PABUK (CHEDENG)…go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com [16]
> http://www.maybagyo.com [17]


:: Kindly view our site’s disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm [19]

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Comments Disabled To "Brace for Impact: TROPICAL STORM PABUK"

#1 Comment By Colby On August 7, 2007 @ 00:14

Too bad you don’t have a Pentax camera to take pictures of the storm with.. 😛

#2 Comment By MJ Klein On August 7, 2007 @ 01:08

i have a D80. i’m very happy, with my choice trust me.

please read the previous post about pushy sales people. 😉